a) Read the rest of this question, then state the null hypothesis.
- Trials are independent with 1/4 probability of success
b) Under the null hypothesis, what is the probability of passing
the test, i.e. succeeding in at least 5 of 6 trials?
- (1/4)6 + 6 (1/4)5 (1/4) = 0.00464..
c) Which of these (more than one) are true?
The probability (b) is --
- ____ The probability the test makes the RIGHT assessment.
- ____ The probability the test makes the WRONG assessment.
- ____ The probability the psychic is an utter fraud.
- ____ The probability the psychic has some ability
(though not necessarily perfect).
- _T_ The probability an utter fraud PASSES the test
thus deceiving us.
- ____ The probability an utter fraud FAILS the test
- ____ The probability a genuine psychic PASSES the test
- ____ The probability a genuine psychic FAILS the test and
so is believed a fake.
- _T_ The "X" in: If the test is passed, either there
is some amount of genuine ability or something unlikely
to the extent X happened.
- ____ The "X" in: If the test is failed, either the
psychic is a fraud or something unlikely to the extent
- _T_ A type I error.
- ____ A type II error.